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Edition april 20, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition april 20, 2018

    Germany – 2018-2019 scenario: Outlook at Q1-2018

    After a strong growth in 2017, we expect activity growth to be also robust in 2018 and a slight slowdown in 2019. The unemployment rate has not yet reached its bottom and underemployed part-time workers represent a potential source of additional workforce to meet the increased demand. Domestic demand remains the main pillar of growth, while external demand may suffer from a more protectionist environment than in the past.

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  • Content:

    - Overview
    - Focus
    - Latest economic trends
    - Backbone of our scenario

  • Extract:

    German growth was especially robust in 2017, suggesting that the country's economy was overheating. From the employment angle, the number of hours worked is at a record high, while there is still room for manoeuvre to boost production via a reduction in the unemployment rate, taken in the broadest sense. The ongoing decline in the unemployment rate could, therefore, extend beyond our forecasting horizon before reaching its equilibrium rate. Despite the slowdown observed in Q4, support factors for domestic demand persist. The outlook for the labour market and pay is still on the upside, and firms have sufficient room for manoeuvre to go on investing. The outlook for external demand, however, is more uncertain, with a risk of an escalation in the tariff wars, which would see Europe, and Germany in particular, suffering. Our scenario is based on stable annual growth of 2.5% in 2018, due to relatively intact domestic support, slowing to 2.2% in 2019 on a decline in external demand.

  • Germany: US imports of vehicles

    German cars represent 12.9% of US imports of vehicles worth $ 22 billion in 2016. These imports are regularly criticized by the US administration and are threatened with likely tariff barriers that would undermine the country's industrial production.

    Germany: US imports of vehicles
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe


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