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Edition October 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition October 2017

    Germany – 2017-2018 Scenario: Outlook in Q3-2017

    Domestic demand remains the main factor supporting German activity in 2017 and 2018. The acceleration of consumption and investment this year is being confirmed over the quarters, while the export surge supported by world trade is counterbalanced by the rise of imports that are more dynamic. Our scenario expects a solid GDP growth of + 2.2% in 2017 and + 2.1% in 2018.

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  • Contents:

    - Overview
    - Focus: the new electoral situation
    - Latest economic trends
    - Backbone of our scenario

  • Extract: The new electoral situation

    The four players involved (CDU/CSU/FDP/Greens) are prepared to negotiate to reach an agreement by year-end. In the domestic policy sphere, the government is likely to adopt a more liberal economic bias (tax cuts and deregulation of temporary agency employment) and would confirm a more restrictive migration policy. Its commitment to strengthening the process of further integrating eurozone countries could come under pressure from the Liberals. Support for the future Jamaica coalition from the Länder seems fairly weak. With the SPD in opposition, the Bundesrat (upper house of Parliament) could henceforth block or further slow government initiatives at federal level. In this case, the legislative process is likely to be less fluid than in the past.

  • Germany: a more fragmented Bundestag

    The CDU / CSU and the SPD came out of the general election weaker, while the "small parties" gained ground. The extreme right-wing AfD party has entered Parliament after making significant progress in votes and the liberals of the FDP become crucial to form a coalition.

    Germany: a more fragmented Bundestag
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe

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