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Edition January 17, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition January 17, 2018

    Germany – 2017-2018 scenario: Outlook at Q4-2017

    Our scenario for the German activity is based on a solid growth of 2.6% in 2017 and 2018. It's mainly supported by a strong domestic demand driven by both private consumption and productive investment. However, the surge in net exports also seems to contribute more sustainably to this phase of expansion of the economic cycle.

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  • Contents:

    - Overview
    - Focus: easing political tensions
    - Latest economic trends
    - Backbone of our scenario

  • Extract:

    The majority of countries in the Eurozone are benefitting from the acceleration in global growth. They are also benefitting from sustained domestic demand fuelled by consumption and investment. The prices of oil and commodities are rising only slowly and interest rates are still dictated by the ECB's highly accommodative monetary policy. For the time being, the euro's appreciation against the dollar is not a brake on export dynamics. The rate of German GDP growth is slightly higher than the Eurozone average but is still below its past performance. From the start of the year, German growth accelerated, driven by more sustained industrial activity (27% of added value). The industrial cycle indicator based on Ifo activity indices confirms the continuation of the industrial strengthening in Q4.

  • Germany: Inevitable coalition

    After the failure of negotiations with Jamaican coalition, Angela Merkel had no other choice than to reiterate her proposed alliance with the SPD. The failure to achieve this, could suggest the end of the Merkel era, but both parties were able to validate a blueprint agreement whose details are still to be refined.

    Germany: Inevitable coalition
  • Associative topics : Economics | Europe

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