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Edition 25 July 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition 25 July 2018

    France – Scenario 2018-2019

    In 2016, and for the third consecutive year, growth stood at around 1% in France. It then accelerated sharply in 2017, to 2.3%. For 2018 and 2019, we expect growth to remain strong, at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

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  • Contents:

    - Summary
    - Focus: where are we in the cycle?
    - Recent trends in activity
    - Scenario 2018-2019: from acceleration to expansion

  • Extract: A physiological slowdown of the cycle in the Eurozone and in France

    Our assessment is that, after experiencing a period of acceleration in 2017, the French economy is now in an expansion phase (i.e. mature growth). During this phase, we observe a gradual deceleration in activity, but with a growth rate still above the potential (estimated at around 1.3% p.a. in volume terms). This phase extends up to the point that the production gap is at its maximum (i.e. when installed capacity is stretched to its maximum). Indeed, reaching potential does not mean that a downturn is imminent, as GDP theoretically fluctuates around its potential level. On the domestic front, despite their recent dip, lead economic indicators confirm a persisting upwards phase in the cycle.

  • Lead GDP growth indicator

    Q1 GDP marked a slowdown in growth. This slowdown is not a sign of a downturn in the French economy. The June business surveys suggest a slight improvement in H2. Our lead indicator points to 0.3% GDP growth q-o-q in Q2.

    Lead GDP growth indicator
  • Associative topics : Economics | France


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