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Edition 24 October 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition 24 October 2017

    France – 2017-2018 Scenario: The economic improvement confirmed

    In 2016, for the third consecutive year, French growth came in at around 1% (1.1% in 2016). In 2017 and 2018, we are expecting to see an acceleration, with real GDP growth of respectively 1.7% and 1.6%. Tangible signs of an economic improvement have been perceptible for several months. The domestic drivers of recovery are more dynamic than we initially forecast. A self-sustaining growth cycle seems to be settling in.

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  • Contents:

    - Overview
    - Focus: the 2018 draft budget
    - Recent activity trends
    - 2017 -2018 scenario: the economic improvement confirmed

  • Extract:

    A number of temporary factors are underpinning growth in 2017: the government's accelerated depreciation measure, and rebounds in the tourism, agricultural and aerospace and naval sectors. Normally, these factors will not operate in 2018. The financial environment is still positive but long-term interest rates and, more importantly, the euro exchange rate, are starting to edge up. There are persistent obstacles to growth. France is still suffering from a cost and non-cost competitiveness deficit. In addition, the need to narrow the public deficit via lower spending is also limiting the ongoing economic expansion. We have revised our growth forecast for 2017 upwards in view of the more favourable domestic momentum than initially forecast and of one-off catch-up phenomena. In 2018, on the other hand, growth is unlikely to accelerate further.

  • France: GDP QoQ growth and contributions

    The GDP growth figure confirms the Q2 pick-up in growth (+0.5% over the quarter for the third quarter running). The growth carry-over for 2017 stands at 1.4%. Growth is being fuelled by higher investment (business and household), consumption, and foreign trade, while inventories are having a negative impact.

    France: GDP QoQ growth and contributions
  • Associative topics : Economics | France


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