9 10,12,16,14
Edition May 29, 2018 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition May 29, 2018

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.

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  • Content:

    - Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia
    - North Africa, Middle East
    - Sub-Saharan Africa
    - Asia
    - Latin America
    - Trends to watch

  • Extract – Argentina

    It took two rate hikes totalling 600bp in a single week, taking the key rate to 33.25%, plus a near-12% drop in foreign currency reserves to precariously stabilise the peso, which, in real effective terms is now approximately back at its early February level. Upstream of this new raid on the currency, two catalysts were incriminated, namely rising US interest rates along with a growing natural (although extremely contained) distrust of emerging currencies, and the sell-off of peso-denominated short-term securities (Lebacs issued by the Central Bank) by non-resident funds, now liable for a 5% tax. The funds nevertheless preferred to acquire dollar-denominated assets rather than seek out alternative peso-denominated investments. The rate increase was “dressed up” with the need to combat inflation, which has risen once again (25.4% in the 12 months to March).

  • Indonesia: Growth contributions

    Q1 growth came out at 5.1% over 12 months compared with 5.2% over the last 3 months of 2017. The consensus was for 5.2% growth. With consumers, growth was 4.9% over the first 4 months of 2018, compared with 5% in Q4 last year. State consumption came out at 2.7%. Exports also did their bit, slowing from 8.5% in Q4 2017 to 6.2% in the following quarter. Investment, however, turned out to be slightly more vigorous.

    Indonesia: Growth contributions
  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Latin America


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