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Edition July 19, 2017 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition July 19, 2017

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: In the Balkans, the Trieste meeting raised the question of the creation of a common market and/or political issues. The crisis in the Gulf States will have a negative, long-term impact on the image of the GCC. Two interesting figures were published in South Africa: inflation and the Q1 2017 current account deficit. Chinese shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have been included in the composite MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In Brazil, Michel Temer is battling for his political survival.

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  • Content:

    - Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia
    - North Africa, Middle East
    - Sub-Saharan Africa
    - Asia
    - Latin America
    - Trends to watch

  • Extract – Central Europe: Public debt is largely owned by foreigners

    The Baltic states are the champions in this respect. Between 65% and 72% of their public debt is held by non-residents. In heavily indebted Slovenia (debt = 80% of GDP), residents only own 33% of issued debt, whereas 67% has been taken up by foreign investors. A smaller proportion is also held by non-residents in Slovakia, Poland and Romania. These proportions show the markets' confidence in those countries, but they also imply a degree of monetary fragility in these economies in the event of a crisis that would have foreign investors among the first to scramble for the exits. In the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Hungary, the financial sector holds the greater part of public debt, at respectively 58%, 62%, and 58%. Such large-scale exposure to sovereign risk on the part of the financial sector has a negative impact on the banking sector's ability to lend to the economy (known as the eviction phenomenon), which has the potential to penalise private investment and consumption.

  • India: Demand

    GDP growth came out at 6.1% over 12 months in Q1, compared with 7% in the previous quarter and 9.2% in the same year-earlier period.

    India: Demand
  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Latin America

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