9,7 10,12,16,14
Edition June 7, 2016 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition June 7, 2016

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: Kazakhstan is in recession for the first time since 2009. Hungary's sovereign rating is at long last back at investment grade. In Algeria, the depletion of the Revenue Regulation Fund has triggered a rise in public debt. Mozambique looks increasingly likely to default on its sovereign debt. April in China: keep your eye on the ball… The Termer government has political difficulties in Brazil.

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  • Content:

    - Fixed exchange rates and falling oil prices: a dangerous mix...
    - Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia
    - North Africa, Middle East
    - Sub-Saharan Africa
    - Asia
    - Latin America
    - Trends to watch

  • Extract – Kazakhstan: In recession for the first time since 2009

    The GDP growth figures for the Q1 have just been published and show a slight recession of around 0.6% y/y, mainly linked to poor results from the mining sectors and a correction to household consumption, which was one of the country's main growth drivers.

    It would seem that for the time being the effects of the crisis may be more limited in the other sectors, but we take a cautious approach to this statement as problems in the banking sector could grow: the ratio of doubtful loans is quite logically up, and running at 25% at least, if the rating agencies are to be believed. What's more, sectors that are carrying debt in foreign currencies and have no export revenues could also show up with financial difficulties throughout 2016, especially in the construction sector.

    Fitch's forecasts for the full year, are fairly downbeat, with negative growth of 1%, an annual inflation rate of 14% and double domestic and external deficits of respectively 4.2% for the budget and 3.8% for the current account.

  • Latin America: structure of income tax

    The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) has published a report on taxation that draws attention to tax evasion and especially that of individual income tax payers. The income tax they pay only garners 1.3% of GDP on average for state budgets, compared with an average of 8.5% in OECD countries. Conversely, tax on corporate profits is slightly higher in Latin America than the OECD average.

    Latin America: structure of income tax
  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Industry and Services | Latin America


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