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Edition July 1, 2015 - Crédit Agricole S.A.
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  • Edition July 1, 2015

    Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest

    Highlights: In Central Europe, the standard of living is calculated according to GDP at purchasing power parity per capita. The Algerian Prime Minister sounds the alarm. Decoupling in variations in Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza against the dollar. India posts an improvement… in industrial production. Brazil must solve its inflation conundrum.

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  • Content:

    - Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia
    - North Africa, Middle East
    - Sub-Saharan Africa
    - Asia
    - Latin America
    - Trends to watch
    - Crédit Agricole Group economic forecasts

  • Extract – Brazil: Solving the inflation conundrum

    Brazil's inflation, measured by the IPCA, continues to rise inexorably. At the end of May, it stood at 8.5%, not far from the December 2003 record of 9.3%. IBGE, the Brazilian statistics agency, breaks the inflation trend down into several components: in the first place, the reform of administered prices, such as oil subsidies, is significantly contributing to inflation pressures, as the Institute reckons that they rose by 14.1% in the 12 months to May, compared with 4.3% a year earlier.

    It is, therefore, realistic to think that from next year, the effect will fade and stop putting pressure on the inflation rate. Food prices are also driving inflation up (+8.8% in the year to May). But one cannot count on future moderation in these prices alone: the rise in “non tradable” prices, especially services, is running at a high rate, with services again growing at 8.2% in the year to May.

  • Poland: Inflation & MM rate

    The contraction in consumer prices has continued since the start of 2015, and amounted to 0.9% in April. Low commodity prices, are the main reason for the deflation, which has averaged 1.1% since the start of the year. Poland moved into deflation in August 2014. The NBP left its key rate unchanged at 1.5% at this stage, reckoning that the real interest rate is hardly punitive, with growth as vigorous as ever.

    Poland: Inflation & MM rate
  • Associative topics : Africa and Middle East | Asia and Oceania | CEE and Central Asia | Economics | Latin America


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